The IAEA observes growth in the construction of nuclear power plants by 2030.
The International Atomic Energy Agency predicts continued growth in nuclear power capacity through 2030, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated. The agency emphasizes the role of nuclear power in achieving global climate and sustainable development goals.
Nuclear generating capacity is expected to grow by between 1.9% and 56% by 2030, compared with last year's forecast of growth between 2.4% and 68%, according to the IAEA forecast published in the latest edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power: Assessments to 2050. In the worst-case scenario, capacity is projected to increase to 390.2 GWe by 2030 from 382.9 GWe in 2015, while in the best-case scenario it will increase to 598.2 GWe.
According to the agency, this significant range is mainly due to uncertainties related to energy policy, license renewals, reactor closures and future construction, with projections from 2030 to 2050 involving a greater degree of uncertainty.
The IAEA suggests that in the short term, the growth of nuclear power will be affected by factors including low natural gas prices, declining costs of renewable energy, „a lack of market signals for low-carbon energy“, and slower global economic growth. While the worst-case scenario sees only modest growth, the IAEA said the need to replace aging reactors means that „the total number of generating capacity to be built will be much larger than the apparent net increase.“.
Mikhail Chudakov, Deputy Director General of the IAEA and Head of the Agency’s Nuclear Energy Division, said: „Nuclear energy will, in the long term, continue to play an important role in the global energy mix. As the world’s population and demand for electricity grow, nuclear energy can contribute to ensuring reliable and secure energy supplies while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, nuclear energy can help reduce energy poverty while at the same time combating climate change.“
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has developed its own vision for the future of electricity, hereinafter referred to as „Harmony“. It is based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) scenario of limiting global warming to 2°C, which aims to avoid the most serious consequences of climate change and requires a large increase in nuclear generation capacity. „Harmony“ envisages a diverse mix of low-carbon energy generation technologies, deployed in such a way that the benefits of each are maximised while the negative impacts are minimised. The Association’s nuclear energy target is for 25% of electricity to come from nuclear power by 2050, which would require the construction of approximately 1000 GWe of new nuclear capacity.
Climate and sustainable development goals
The IAEA's annual publication "„Climate Change and Nuclear Energy 2016.“ includes a discussion of the potential impact of the Paris Agreement on nuclear energy. David Shropshire, Head of the Planning and Economic Research Sector at the IAEA, said: „To achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, and to ensure sustainable and reliable energy for all, as set out in the Sustainable Development Goals, we need all low-carbon energy sources, including nuclear, in combination with renewable energy, energy storage and energy efficiency.„
A third, recently issued, IAEA publication, „Nuclear energy and sustainable development"“, presents the scope and scale of the energy challenges and the potential role of nuclear energy in achieving sustainable development. According to IAEA Energy Economist Loretta Stankeviciot, there is a need to raise awareness and recognize the benefits that nuclear energy offers for achieving sustainable development, in particular avoiding air pollution, enhancing technological and human capital, and providing reliable and predictable electricity. The implementation of the Paris Agreement, together with a sustainability policy, increases the value of having a nuclear energy program.
